Go Swedish, Part 47….

Publicerat: juni 30, 2011 i Banker, Ekonomi, Politik

Without further ado: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/06/go-swedish-part-47/

kommentarer
  1. Lincoln skriver:

    Nebbiolo la upp en kommentar hos mig där han återgav en fråga ocj Steve Keens svar som kanske pekar lite på hur mycket bloggaren är ute och cyklar. Hade vi haft en fri ekonomisk press skulle det här varit ett jättescoop, då Keeen tycker det verkar vara starka krissignaler på Svensk ekonomi:

    Nebbiolo71:

    Regarding Sweden, it’s currently considered one of the European tiger economies but personally I think the economy is mostly fueled by the credit impulse injected by the still ongoing housing bubble. Of course, in addition, because of not being part of EURO, Swedish export industry has flourished when the currency has been floating/adapting but this doesn’t explain all.

    For years the increase in household debt has been in the range of 6-8 % of GDP and is now reaching 100% in total (of GDP), total private debt closing in on the 300% of GDP. The interesting is that this period of growth started by quite high unemployment (created during the last Swedish financial crisis in 1993 when the government tried to tie the currency to the EURO…) that hasn’t changed/improved despite the growth of GDP. The ratio between mean income and average debt is similar to the figures you’ve published on Australia, maybe even a bit worse.

    What worries me (an a whole bunch of others) is what happens once the increase in household debt declines or worse, if people starting to pay back loans instead of taking on new ones. Reading your work on the subject doesn’t really dispel these dark clouds… …when I think your analysis would point out a strong recession or even depression, given the magnitude of the debt (especially if the world is on a protectionism route, given the importance of export in Sweden) – am I right?

    Steve:

    Those sound like crisis level figures to me Nebbiolo–similar to the USA which is much worse than Australia on debt to GDP. And your export vulnerability sounds like a replay of Japan, which slumped very badly when the Great Recession began since its exports plummeted.

  2. Henke skriver:

    mycket intressant skrivit av steve keeen, tack Lincoln! Tanken om den svenska tiger-ekonomin är så pinsam, speciellt med tanke på att vi sett vad som hänt i Irland, Spanien, Island, USA mm….

  3. Jag tycker att Sverige har klarat sig väldigt bra, men kanske inte en tiger-ekonomi…

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